CDT Data Tables

For the following data, all figures should be taken as indicative only, and are based on the following assumptions:

the CDT is introduced in 2021 in every jurisdiction globally
the rate is increased as described in the report: introduced at $5 per tonne of CO2e, then increasing by $5 per tonne of CO2e each year until 2030, when it will be reviewed with the expectation of increasing by $10 each year up to 2050.
the fossil fuel phase out follows the average of pathways P1, P2 and P3 in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C
countries do not shift between income brackets or change their share of each fossil fuel usage globally over time

For the full methodology and sources, please see the report Appendix.

Potential CDT revenues globally by year

Year	Just Transition revenues ($bn)	Loss and Damage revenues ($bn)	Total CDT revenues ($bn)
2021	141	69	210
2022	256	125	381
2023	349	171	520
2024	423	207	631
2025	481	236	717
2026	526	258	783
2027	559	274	833
2028	582	285	867
2029	597	292	889
2030	605	296	902
2031	663	325	988
2032	706	346	1,052
2033	738	361	1,099
2034	759	372	1,130
2035	771	378	1,149
2036	777	380	1,157
2037	776	380	1,157
2038	771	378	1,149
2039	762	373	1,135
2040	749	367	1,116
2041	734	359	1,093
2042	717	351	1,068
2043	698	342	1,040
2044	678	332	1,010
2045	658	322	980
2046	637	312	948
2047	615	301	916
2048	594	291	884
2049	572	280	853
2050	551	270	821

Potential CDT revenues across all countries in 2021

Country of fossil fuel extraction	Just Transition revenues remitted to governments for domestic use ($m)	Loss and Damage revenues contributed to solidarity fund by fossil fuel extractors due to extraction activity within country ($m)	Total ($m)

US	12,789	12,789	25,578
Canada	3,034	3,034	6,068
Mexico	1,514	649	2,163
Total North America	17,337	16,472	33,809

Argentina	386	386	772
Bolivia	170	0	170
Brazil	1,732	742	2,474
Colombia	1,413	605	2,018
Ecuador	294	126	419
Peru	146	62	208
Trinidad & Tobago	200	200	401
Venezuela	1,381	592	1,973
Other S. & Cent. America	118	51	168
Total S. & Cent. America	5,839	2,765	8,604

Bulgaria	339	145	484
Czech Republic	316	316	632
Denmark	75	75	149
Germany	1,263	1,263	2,525
Greece	266	266	532
Hungary	56	56	112
Italy	57	57	114
Netherlands	182	182	364
Norway	1,266	1,266	2,533
Poland	913	913	1,826
Romania	362	155	517
Serbia	393	169	562
Spain	20	20	39
Turkey	982	421	1,403
United Kingdom	572	572	1,145
Other Europe	552	552	1,104
Total Europe	7,613	6,427	14,040

Azerbaijan	527	226	753
Kazakhstan	2,178	933	3,111
Russian Federation	14,180	6,077	20,258
Turkmenistan	560	240	800
Ukraine	674	0	674
Uzbekistan	624	0	624
Other C’wealth of Independent States	141	0	141
Total C’wealth of Independent States	18,884	7,476	26,360

Bahrain	75	75	150
Iran	3,971	1,702	5,673
Iraq	2,356	1,010	3,365
Kuwait	1,161	1,161	2,322
Oman	510	510	1,021
Qatar	1,461	1,461	2,922
Saudi Arabia	4,690	4,690	9,379
Syria	47	0	47
United Arab Emirates	1,599	1,599	3,197
Yemen	37	0	37
Other Middle East	178	76	255
Total Middle East	16,084	12,283	28,390

Algeria	1,322	566	1,888
Angola	1,205	0	1,205
Chad	80	0	80
Republic of Congo	216	0	216
Egypt	961	0	961
Equatorial Guinea	98	42	140
Gabon	103	44	147
Libya	500	214	715
Nigeria	1,872	0	1,872
South Africa	2,482	1,064	3,546
South Sudan	79	0	79
Sudan	62	0	62
Tunisia	36	0	36
Zimbabwe	41	0	41
Other Africa	487	209	696
Total Africa	9,544	2,139	11,683

Australia	4,056	4,056	8,111
Bangladesh	264	0	264
Brunei	100	100	200
China	37,678	16,148	53,825
India	10,943	0	10,943
Indonesia	7,838	0	7,838
Japan	10	10	20
Malaysia	877	376	1,253
Mongolia	696	0	696
Myanmar	179	0	179
New Zealand	21	21	41
Pakistan	401	0	401
South Korea	10	10	21
Thailand	602	258	860
Vietnam	866	0	866
Other Asia Pacific	970	416	1,385
Total Asia Pacific	65,510	21,393	86,903

Total World	140,811	68,956	209,790

High income	35,638	35,638	71,276
Upper middle income	77,741	33,318	111,059
Lower middle income	27,432	0	27,432
Low income	283	0	283

The SDGs need real solutions, not failed ideas

Instead of the same old failed ideas, we need real solutions to the SDGs funding gap more urgently than ever. Public services – whether in high or low income countries – are best funded through public money, which can be spent where need is greatest rather than chasing profit. These solutions include Global Solidarity Levies – alongside cracking down on huge global companies that dodge paying taxes in low income countries, and wiping out unpayable debts for the lowest income countries.

Yet over the last decade, politicians in high income countries have tried to fob us off with failed ideas. Their favourite is the so-called ‘Billions to Trillions’ approach, which lets high income country governments off the hook by relying on huge global companies to voluntarily fill the SDGs funding gap.

They claim that if these companies are offered profit guarantees, backed up by $100 billion from the aid budget, they will invest one trillion dollars into essential public services in low income countries. But this approach has been called ‘mathematical gymnastics’ – experts suggest this sort of private investment could only double the aid budget at best.

Click here to read our report: Billions to Trillions: A Reality Check

More and more evidence – from both high and low income countries – also shows that public services such as hospitals and roads do not generate big profits. Guarantees then leave governments on the hook for sky-high payments decades to come.

In Lesotho, annual payments for one hospital built through a ‘Public Private Partnership’ (PPP) ended up costing half the country’s entire health budget. In 2018, Chancellor Philip Hammond vowed not to sign another ‘Private Finance Initiative’ (PFI) deal for UK public services for this reason, and the French Court of Auditors recommended the strategy be abandoned in 2017.

And private funding also neglects the most vulnerable.

The ‘Billions to Trillions’ approach ignores the evidence that low income countries are often left worse off, wastes scarce aid money, and doesn’t reach those most in need. And every day spent talking about ‘Billions to Trillions’ is a day wasted, when real solutions to fill the SDGs funding gap are being ignored. It’s time for governments to get real, and force those who can best afford to pay a bit more, to do so.

Published 15/04/19 2:44 am

Billions to Trillions: A Reality Check

Our new report, Billions to Trillions: A Reality Check authored by Sony Kapoor of the think tank, RE-DEFINE, was launched during the 2019 UN Financing for Development Forum in New York.

The report outlines why the mobilisation potential of blending has been oversold through the Billions to Trillions agenda by a factor of ten, and how continued blending evangelism is unhelpful in reaching the Sustainable Development Goals.

Read the report

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The Climate Damages Tax: a guide to what it is and how it works

Our new Climate Damages Tax report has been launched during COP24 in Katowice, Poland.

The report outlines how a Climate Damages Tax on the fossil fuel industry – those overwhelmingly responsible for the climate problem – could raise approximately $300 billion a year in revenues for loss and damage to help the most vulnerable people deal with the worst impacts of climate change, and billions more for just transition to renewable energy, jobs and transport.

REPORT: The Climate Damages Tax: A guide to what it is and how it works

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Executive Summary – The Climate Damages Tax: A guide to what it is and how it works

OPED: It’s time for those who caused climate change to pay for it

Please click here for the full data estimating potential CDT revenues.